Immigration policy: What expats should watch from 2026 to 2030

How is immigration changing, and will this affect your plans to move overseas? We investigate.

If you are thinking about moving abroad, the next few years probably will not necessarily feel more open, or more closed. They will, however, feel more selective. Countries still want skills (increasingly hard skills), investment, and certain kinds of mobility. They are just being much clearer about who they want, and much stricter about everyone else. That matters whether you are moving for work, for family, or because you want a different life abroad. The OECD has already warned that aging populations will create lasting labor shortages, while the leading HR organization, the RES Forum, reports that remote-first and gig economy themes mean cross-border work is getting more varied and more compliance-heavy.

What does that mean for you? Firstly, your visa is only one piece of the move. You’ll also need to be thinking about family rights, salary thresholds, language rules and renewal conditions. You’ll also need to think about how stable your route will look two or three years after you arrive. A country can still look welcoming from the outside while it is harder to navigate once you’re there.

“Governments are still streamlining the people they want, but they are becoming far more selective about everyone else. The broad-tent era is fading.”

Jo Danehl, Global Director, Global Skills

1. Getting your visa is only part of the story

The clearest theme we discovered is that compliance is getting much tougher. That might sound like a problem for your employer, but it can hit private

movers directly. In the U.K., the Home Office sponsor duties guidance keeps tightening around reporting, oversight, and accountability. So, if you are moving on a sponsored route, your plans are tied not just to your own paperwork, but to whether your employer is doing its part properly.

The same applies to Oceania. Australia, like much of the world, increasingly ties sponsorship to income thresholds, and its wider migration strategy is very open about linking migration to skills needs and economic value. New Zealand’s Accredited Employer Work Visa also puts employer accreditation at the center of the system. Ask yourself bluntly, how solid is the employer behind your visa?

The RES Forum underscores these complexities. It describes international remote work as a “minefield” of tax, immigration, payroll, data security, and permanent establishment risk. Its gig economy paper makes a similar point from another angle. Cross-border work may be more flexible now, but it is not becoming simpler. If anything, the legal and practical checks around it are getting tighter.

“The border is no longer just at the airport. It sits inside payroll, reporting lines, ownership structures and compliance workflows.”

Victor Verejan, EMEA Immigration Program Manager

2. Europe’s rules are diverging (slightly)

Europe can still look open from the outside, but the rules aren’t necessarily moving in one direction. The European Commission’s implementation work on the Pact on Migration and Asylum points to a more structured framework from 2026 onward. At the same time, ETIAS will add another digital layer for many visa-exempt travelers. So even in a region built on mobility, movement is becoming more formal, more trackable, and notably less casual.

That still doesn’t mean Europe is functionally one labor area for non-Europeans. National differences remain sharp. Through Make it in Germany, Germany is actively marketing itself to skilled workers, including people coming through shortage-based and vocational routes. Its migration and mobility partnership with India reflects the same idea. Access is being linked to labor needs. If you’re from outside the EU, and you are weighing up a move to Europe, the country, route, and long-term conditions matter much more than the region-wide label you may have read about.

France is a good example. Official guidance now ties some residence outcomes more clearly to language and civic requirements, including A2 and B1 language thresholds for multi-year and resident cards. The U.K. is taking its own route, but there’s a similar message here with regards to language requirements and salary thresholds. The 2025 immigration white paper and the “earned settlement” consultation both point to a more conditional route to settlement, while the student dependent rules are already tighter than they used to be. So the overall trend in Europe is: Fewer broad entitlements, more filtering by salary, language, occupation and long-term contribution.

“In Europe, the directive may be shared, but implementation is always national. A Blue Card to Germany does not look the same as a Blue Card to Poland.”

Joanna Sogeke, European Client Services Manager

3. Not every route abroad leads to a stable life abroad

One of the biggest distinctions in speaking with our experts was between the idea of controlled versus closed labor flows. Skills shortages remain acute and Governments are still opening doors where they see labor-market value. They are just being more specific about who those doors are for. That matters because a move abroad nowadays is primarily about whether your profile still fits the receiving country’s economic logic.

This is where Jo Danehl, our Global Skills Director’s idea of the “currency of best fit” becomes useful. A move now depends on more than whether an employer wants you. Citizenship, language, dependents, long-term status, salary level, and even the wider politics of migration in the destination country can shape the outcome. The first question is not always, “Can I move?” It may be, “Is this still the right route, in this country, at this moment?”

The RES Forum research also supports that view. Their “remote-first report” suggests hybrid has largely beaten pure remote work, while the gig economy paper argues that shorter, more agile, and more contingent forms of international work are becoming harder to ignore. In summary, governments are narrowing some immigration gates at the same time as work itself is becoming more flexible. That tension is likely to shape a lot of international movement over the next few years. It also means your own preferences play a role here, i.e. are you already accustomed to a hybrid role in your home country?

“Open mobility is over. What is replacing it is controlled mobility, targeted at shortages, wealth creation and talent.”

Victor Verejan, EMEA Immigration Program Manager

4. Premium lanes are opening, but they are not for everyone

If the middle of the market is filtered harder, the top end is getting more tailored treatment. Singapore’s ONE Pass is a clear example. It is built for top talent across sectors and is not tied to one employer in the way a standard pass is. Its Employment Pass framework also continues to benchmark eligibility against salary and points. That is not general openness. It is a premium lane for a small group of people seen as especially valuable.

Thailand is operating in a similar space through its Long-term resident program. The UAE’s golden visa and virtual work residence route show the same thinking. Japan’s highly skilled professional visa and South Korea’s Top-Tier Visa expansion show a clear direction of travel in Asia: Routes for a very narrow slice of highly-skilled, mostly STEM professionals.

China also deserves attention. It has widened short-stay access in recent years while still keeping the R visa for high-level talent and urgently needed specialists. Governments are, essentially, getting better at distilling what they see as truly “skilled word” (especially important in the emerging AI era). If you fall into a premium category, the process may be smoother. If you do not, it will likely feel tighter.

“There is not that much top-end talent in the world. Countries know that, and the visa design increasingly reflects it.”

Debra Jane Beynon, Director of Immigration Services, APAC

5. Thinking of becoming a digital nomad? Rules are tightening

Asia Pacific countries best exemplify this tendency towards a mix of openness alongside stringent enforcement. Premium routes may exist, but sponsor duties, digital checks and salary thresholds are not getting looser. Debra Jane Beynon, Crown World Mobility’s Director of Immigration Services, also pointed out how important digital technology is in these enforcement methods, with biometric tracking and closer sponsor accountability. Your move from a purely self-focused point of view might be smoother, despite the rules behind the scenes tightening.

Malaysia’s MM2H framework helps explain why not all long-stay routes are viewed the same way. Residence based on lifestyle or property are coming under increasing scrutiny, especially where housing pressure (a political hot potato everywhere) is increasingly politicized. The mood is still pro-investment and pro-talent, but it is much less relaxed about broad, lightly regulated access.

The same applies to the much-vaunted “digital nomadism” you may have read about. The desire to work from anywhere is real, but the visa architecture behind it never fully caught up. A route can look open on paper and still be hard to use in real life if tax, payroll, social security and data rules don’t line up. So while digital nomad visas are not disappearing, they are unlikely to stay as loose as many people assumed during the pandemic years.

“You still cannot just go somewhere and work. The desire may be global, but the legal architecture is still national, and enforcement is getting more digital.”

Debra Jane Beynon, Director of Immigration Services, APAC

6. Ask yourself how durable your route is

A related shift is happening inside corporates as well. The classic “long-term assignment” (an expat move intended for several years) you may have heard of or even become accustomed to no longer has the field to itself. Hybrid arrangements, short-term moves, commuter setups, extended business travel, and other flexible models are all becoming more common. For expats and prospective expats, that changes the decision in a very practical way. A full relocation is no longer the only path to an international life. It might not even be the most durable one!

That said, the biggest issue is certainty. If you are moving with a partner, children, school plans, housing costs, or long-term settlement in mind, you need more than a first approval. You need to know what happens next. Can your visa renew cleanly? Can your partner work? Is there a route to permanent residence? Could a policy change make the plan much harder halfway through? Those questions matter as much as the initial yes. More importantly, do you know all the rules associated with your move? That’s where guidance is important.

This is also where the U.S. remains incredibly important. It still matters because of the depth of its labor market, capital base, and prestige. But even strong destinations can make it harder to plan around if the rules keep shifting. The USCIS H-1B modernization rule and the FY 2027 cap-selection changes show how a country can remain attractive while still becoming harder to model cleanly over time. Put another way, are American salaries alluring enough to you to cancel out the uncertainty associated with a U.S. move?

“The move itself is no longer always the answer. Sometimes the answer is a different model of work, a shorter deployment, or not moving the job in the old way at all.”

Jo Danehl, Global Director, Global Skills

From 2026 to 2030, immigration is likely to become significantly more selective, even for professionals, more operational and more political. Harder borders will sit alongside privileged pathways. Digital checks and sponsor duties are likely to deepen. Settlement may become more conditional in some markets. Premium lanes for elite talent will probably keep widening as countries compete for top-level engineers, doctors and scientists. More flexible forms of cross-border work may grow, but the rules governing these will be tight.

If you’re considering a move, that means starting earlier and asking tougher questions. Do I understand this route beyond the first visa grant? Can my partner come, and can they work?  (Partner support can make or break a move). What happens if my employer changes their mind? How stable is the settlement pathway, assuming I want to settle? Are language requirements likely to tighten? What would happen if the rules shifted while I was already abroad? (Something many H1B holders recently found out). They are basic move-planning questions nowadays.

The broad-tent era is probably not coming back soon. But borders aren’t closing entirely either. The likelier future is more rigorously enforced and more selective. Harder borders, yes, but also more privileged pathways for people who fit the economic and political logic of the country receiving them, and the political part of that equation is subject to change, as we’re finding out.