Moving to the Gulf in uncertain times

The UAE is, relative to its size, the biggest expat destination in the world. Sitting between Europe, Asia and Africa, its attractive tax environment, world-class infrastructure, excellent international schools, extensive air links and a high standard of living are a magnet for corporate management and individual expats alike. In no small part, the region’s appeal has rested on a powerful assumption: safety.

The belief that cities such as Dubai could remain commercially connected and insulated even when tensions flared elsewhere has been central to their popularity for their (overwhelmingly foreign) workforce. As Reuters notes, Dubai specifically has a “safe haven” status in the imagination of its workforce. The ongoing conflict in Iran, and the strikes and drone attacks that have reached Gulf states including the UAE, changes that picture. The question on many lips is now “to what extent”?

Right now, tens of thousands of expatriates have found themselves stranded as flights are suspended and rerouted; many are attempting costly transit journeys while some governments arrange charter departures for vulnerable citizens. That scale of disruption underlines how volatile the situation can be and opens questions about how long this can continue for.

The UAE and other Gulf states are sustained by trade routes that run through Hormuz and the Red Sea primarily, but as you’re probably aware by now, strains are starting to show. They remain heavily reliant on imported food and household goods, so if conflict persists supply chains may become less predictable, shortages and delays more common, and the cost of maintaining the standard of expatriate life may rise.

Energy is part of the same picture: oil and freight costs have surged as markets price in the risk of disruption through Hormuz, and those increases feed into inflation, aviation, insurance and the wider cost base of living and doing business across the region. A short conflict won’t fundamentally change the Gulf’s long-term attractiveness; a prolonged one would be different, complicating relocation planning not just for you personally, but for big corporates too.

This doesn’t mean abandoning your plans to move, but it does change the arrangements: Decisions about your family, schooling choices and where to live now need to factor in the headache of contingencies.

Review your insurance coverage (especially to see if it has exit plans), ensure your passports and are accessible, prioritize accommodation with secure access and reliable backup power, and keep short-term supplies of essential medications and household basics. Some of you may choose temporary relocation until stability returns, or remote schooling options to protect your children.

Barry Koolen, EMEA CEO at Crown Worldwide, says the logistics issues are, and will continue to be complicated soon, advising those who need to ship personal effects to hold them in storage facilities for the moment:

“The biggest impact is that major shipping lines are diverting their vessels away from the Strait of Hormuz, creating significant delays and rising costs. Ports in Oman and alternative hubs are open, but, understandably, there are capacity issues there. To make matters more complicated, airspace closures are limiting air freight options. Although we continue to operate safely, we’re seeing the fragility of global supply chains exposed again. To us, this underscores the need for clear communication with customers. We’re encouraging them to make use of our storage facilities until the situation improves.”

Right now, the immediate priority for anyone affected is operational: how to keep people safe and supported. For expats, the answers will shape everything from travel and schooling to confidence in remaining in post. For families planning a move, they will influence where you choose to live, how you structure your relocation and what contingency measures you put in place.

If you are considering moving overseas, or an expat currently in the Gulf and would like personalized guidance, we can help with everything from immigration to shipping your belongings, and build a contingency plan tailored to your circumstances. Speak to one of our experts today.